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    Investments in the downturn     
         


    – SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS
    David Baker, Senior Manager, Financial Planning, Mazars LLP, Oxford

    Top ten tips on savings and investments in the downturn are as follows:

    1. Check interest rates on savings, especially regular savings accounts. The disparity between the best and worst rates is significant, especially on regular savings where you can now achieve up to 10% gross return, rates we have not witnessed for a number of years.

    2. Make use of tax-free allowances. Individual savings accounts provide attractive cash rates tax free. National savings, especially index-linked savings, are increasingly attractive against a background of rising food and energy costs.

    3. Maximise tax allowances. Many households have a main breadwinner who may be a higher rate taxpayer with the partner being either a basic or non-taxpayer. Ensure that savings and investments that are not tax free are in the name of the lower-taxpaying individual.

    4. Ensure that your age allowance is optimised. If you are over 65 you get an additional personal allowance, which can be eroded by investment income if this takes your total income over £21,800. Capital investment bonds can provide a source of funds without affecting your age allowance.

    5. Do not forget the longer term. Continue to invest in pensions as, depending on your tax rate, you will receive either an additional 20% or 40% tax relief on the investment, making these highly attractive longer term options. As you can invest in cash funds, there is no need to take any investment risk. We do not want this downturn to have an impact on long-term planning if possible.

    6. Diversify your investment. Do not invest in one asset class; for example, do not have all your funds invested in cash or all your funds invested in shares. Consider a combination with fixed interest investments, alternative investments and property. Diversification reduces risk and protects your overall portfolio in such difficult times.

    7. Investment risk. What investment risk have you taken? Is the risk you are taking still relevant to your requirements? Can you meet your needs by taking less risk? For example, why invest in equities if your needs can be met by cash returns? Ensure that you are taking no more risk than needed to meet your specific requirements.

    8. Monitor your investments both in terms of performance and charges. Increased charges on contracts directly affect the performance. Ensure that your investments have a competitively charged structure.

    9. Consider your debt. A debt could be considered as simply a negative saving or investment. What rates are you paying on mortgages, credit cards, store cards etc? Can they be improved upon? Can they be consolidated to pay one lesser cost on a monthly basis?

    10. Income protection/mortgage protection policies. Although not directly savings or investments they do protect against the erosion of such assets should your employment circumstances be at risk during a downturn period.

    Remember that during a period of economic downturn, this can be the perfect opportunity to buy investments when the market and consequently prices are low.

    Always take professional and independent advice on any area of financial planning.

     
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    • Guardian Business News: UK inflation since 1948

      Inflation in the UK has fallen to 4.2%. Get the full data over time - and see how it compares to pay
      • Get the data

      UK inflation dropped to a six-month low of 4.2% in December, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed today - down from 4.8% for November 2011.

      More precisely Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure of inflation stands at 4.2% for December. When looking at this drop it is important to remember that in September this year, when the CPI stood at 5.2%, it had never been higher in recorded history.

      The Retail Price Index (RPI) measure of inflation stands at 4.8% down from 5.2% in November.

      There are some important differences between these two main ways the ONS use to measure inflation. The government prefers the Consumer Price Index, which also includes services, housing, electricity, food, and transportation, but the Retail Price Index covers more items. The RPI includes housing costs and is used for many pay negotiations and used to be used for pension payments. We've included both here - just click on the links on the spreadsheet. You can get the full list of items in the inflation basket here.

      We have also added in pay data - and you can see how inflation is racing ahead of average earnings.

      We have gathered all the data for inflation since June 1948. Let us know what you can do with this data.


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      DATA: UK inflation since the 1940s - CPI and RPI
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    • Guardian Business News: Ofcom aims to cap BT line rental charges from April

      Ofcom, has proposed price cuts of up to 19% in the amount that Openreach – BT's network of landlines – charges rival operators

      The prices consumers pay for broadband and landline telephone services are expected to fall after Ofcom announced plans to reduce the amount BT can charge rivals to rent lines.

      The communications regulator has proposed cuts of up to 19% in the amount that BT's wholesale network Openreach, which owns the majority of landlines in the country, will be able to charge from April, with further decreases the following year.

      This is the third time Ofcom has set the prices that Openreach charges other companies for using their lines and its proposals are expected to benefit BT's rivals such as TalkTalk and Sky, who may choose to pass on the lower costs to consumers.

      However, BT said it is considering appealing against Ofcom's decision because it disagrees with the way it had done its calculations.

      BT said it needed to get a "fair" rate of return if it is to continue investing in the UK's infrastructure. It is currently rolling out superfast broadband to two-thirds of the population by 2014.

      A BT spokesman said: "Whilst the prices are within the range outlined by Ofcom in November, we disagree with some of the underlying assumptions that they have used to determine these charge controls.

      "Our primary concern throughout this process is to ensure that we are able to achieve a fair rate of return in order to continue our investment in the future of the UK's communications infrastructure."

      Ofcom's plans would see the amount BT can charge for a telephone and broadband line fall 4.5% to £87.41 per year. However, the cost of using a broadband line only should also drop 18.9% to £11.92.

      Ofcom has submitted the proposals for approval by the European Commission and is due to publish its final decision early next month. Ofcom regulates the prices BT can charge because it has "significant market power".


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    • BBC Business News: House prices 'up 0.6% in January'
      UK house prices increased by 0.6% in January, according to the latest survey from the Halifax.
    • Daily Mail Travel: Holiday ideas: £500 for a week in a dream French chateau? It's easy...

      You don't have to be loaded to rent a luxurious farmhouse or chateau - there are many hundreds of special, large properties that can be extremely affordable on a per-person basis if you gather a group of friends or your extended family to share the cost, says Fred Mawer.
    • Guardian Business News: Eurozone crisis live: Greece talks grind on as 'deadline' passes

      • Greek government insists talk of a noon deadline was wrong
      •Greek politicians locked in talks with an eye on upcoming elections
      •Merkel keeps heat on Greeks: 'time is of the essence'
      •Credibility of eurozone banks capital boosting plans questioned

      4.37pm: What would actually happen to the country if Greece does go bust?

      That's what the country's technocrat prime minister Lucas Papademos is finding out, as the various meetings about its debt and austerity measures drag on. Papademos has asked experts at Athens' finance ministry to compile a detailed analysis of what bankruptcy would entail. Our correspondent Helena Smith says:

      The verdict, according to Greek officials, is that it will make Argentina "look like a picnic in comparision." What we are experiencing now with all the austerity is actually a form of paradise. Bankruptcy for Greece would be hell."

      Papademos, a macro-economist, intends to present the report at the meeting (we all hope) he will finally hold tomorrow with the three party chiefs backing his coalition.

      Presumably to push them into finally backing the proposals.

      But the protests against austerity continue. Greece's two major unions - representing 2m people or around half the workforce - have called a 24 hour strike tomorrow, the latest in a series of walkouts since the first bailouts in 2010. Ilias Iliopoulos, secretary general of public sector union Adedy, told Reuters:

      Despite our sacrifices and despite admitting that the policy mix is wrong, they still ask for more austerity.

      4.13pm: Portugal seems determined to have its place in the sun today, despite most eyes still being on the interminable Greek talks.

      After a spokesman denied a report the country was sounding out advisers about restructuring its debt, the Portuguese prime minister Passos Coelho has come out fighting.

      He told journalists that Portugal's debt load was sustainable, its borrowing profile was closer to Ireland - the current EU austerity poster child - and its situation was fundamentally different from Greece. According to Reuters he said:

      We will not allow what happened in Greece to happen here.

      Let's hope he is not protesting too much.....

      3.51pm: A quick run around the markets. In early trading Wall Street has following other global markets lower, as the lack of progress in Greece encourages a spot of profit-taking after last week's rises.

      The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down just over 50 points, or 0.4%, while the FTSE 100 is off 16.47 points at 5884.6. Germany, France and Italy have edged marginally lower, while the euro has slipped to $1.3066, but is off its worst levels.

      3.44pm: Readers may recall that on Friday we linked to a report suggesting Portugal was sounding out advisers about restructuring its debts, in a similar way to Greece.

      In a move entirely in keeping with the seeming lack of urgency surrounding much of this crisis, Portugal has now finally responded. A spokesman told Reuters:

      This story is not true, it is groundless.

      The report, coincidentally, is from IFR, a news service run by... Thomson Reuters. Strangely it now has today's date, but it was definitely around on Friday.

      3.16pm: Speaking of Portugal, the European Central Bank was widely believed to be buying the country's bonds last week.

      Although it does not break down its data, the bank has announced it spent €124m on eurozone sovereign debt last week, compared to €63m the previous week. This is basically just keeping things ticking along, a position backed by Germany while others - France, Italy, Britain, the US etc - want it to take a more aggressive stance in its buying.

      The bank's latest policy meeting comes later this week, with uncertainty about whether - like Greece's private bondholders - it will be taking a haircut on the €40bn or so of the country's bonds it owns.

      2.46pm: Gavan Nolan, credit analyst at Markit, notes the markets appear to be increasingly fearful about Portugal being the next in the firing line as debt and austerity talks in Athens run down to the wire. The cost of insuring five-year Portuguese government bonds has risen 38% in the last month.

      [Portugal] is now being compared to Greece on a regular basis, and the comparison doesn't look as frivolous as it did a year ago. Portugal's economy is in a slump, and its growth prospects look grim for the foreseeable future. Debt sustainability then comes into question, as it did with Greece. On the plus side, Portugal is funded through the rest of this year due to the bailout it received from the EU/IMF. But its chances of returning to the capital markets in 2013 look slim at this moment in time, and another bailout is not a remote possibility.

      My colleague Phillip Inman suggests Portuguese politicians will be watching the endgame in Athens with great interest. Any concessions won from Brussels may soon be mirrored in political calls from Lisbon.

      The likelihood is that Brussels will sue for peace [with Greek political leaders] and stitch a compromise deal together, probably tomorrow, ahead of a eurozone ministers meeting on Wednesday. Everyone will declare it a victory.

      Lisbon will look for something similar. Maybe this will be the true battleground, as the Germans renew their objections to a bailout without tough medicine. It could be that Portugal must capitulate or fight and this time, there will be blood.

      My colleague Nick Fletcher takes over the Eurozone Crisis blog from here.

      2.25pm: The saga of the missing meeting continues. Now Reuters is reporting that Greek political leaders have delayed until tomorrow a critical meeting, which had been eagerly anticipated today — first this morning, then in the early evening. Despite claims that progress is being made in talks over fresh austerity measures between coalition politicians, repeated delays are adding to concerns in the wider markets.

      Meanwhile, the cost of insuring Greek sovereign debt against default has been creeping back upwards in recent weeks. For five-year bonds, credit default swaps - a measure of the cost of insurance - have climbed from 5200 basis points to 6542 in the last ten days.

      1.35pm: Data released by the European Union this morning showed that the combined debt of the 27 members of the EU has now hit €10,320,106,100,000, or €10.3 trillion.

      The new statistics, published by Eurostat, showed that the EU collective debt now equals 82.2% of GDP. France and the UK both owe 85.2% of their national output, with Germany in slightly better shape with a national debt worth 81.8% of GDP.

      The data also shows how national debts have swelled over the last few years (see above).

      You can see all the information on the Datablog.

      1.04pm: Debt talks delays in Athens continues to hit the currency markets, as traders fear the spectre of a chaotic default and contagion. Euro now down 0.6% at $1.3064.

      After gaining strength since mid-January on optimism about a deal, the euro is now dipping again.

      12.55pm: A meeting between Greek prime minister Lucas Papademos and coalition party leaders is likely to take place early this evening, says Helena Smith in Athens.

      Senior officials are confirming that there is concensus among Greece's politicial party chiefs to accept the conditions and terms attached to Athens' next bailout program. "They have accepted the basic principles ... there are outstanding issues and they will take it as far as they can but they are not going to press the nuclear button," one well-placed source said. "The meeting should take place around 6pm, a little earlier or a little later, and we hope that everything willl be finalised at it."

      Negotiations between troika representatives and the Greek finance minister Evangelos Venizelos are currently taking place to discuss "technical" issues.

      "The troika has relented," said another official. "The biggest obstacle now is the minimum wage. What can you do in Greece with €550 [a month]? It's very difficult for anyone to accept that it be reduced to such levels but my sense tis that this will be solved as well. We are getting closer to an agreement."

      12.20pm: Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel have also waded into the situation, at a joint news conference in Paris this lunchtime.

      Sarkozy claimed – with just a hint of optimism – that an agreement over Greece's second bailout has "never been closer". The French president also urged Greece's political leaders to follow through on their commitments.

      As Sarkozy put it:

      Europe is a place where everyone has their rights and duties. Time is running out, it needs to be concluded. It needs to be signed.

      Chancellor Merkel told the press conference that it was important to see "some progress" in "the next few days", and also insisted that Greece must decide whether it remains in the euro. She said:

      We want Greece to stay in the euro. To say it clearly, this is the opinion of both of us. But I also say – there can be no new Greece programme if agreement is not reached with the Troika

      All those who bear responsibility in Greece must know – we will not deviate
      from this position.

      And without a new programme of aid, Greece would head to default next month.

      12.06pm: The European commission has blasted Greece for its failure to reach an agreement, and insisted that time has run out.

      EC spokesman Amadeu Altafaj told journalists in Brussels that "the ball was in the court of the Greek authorities", insisting that they must now decide whether it would accept the terms of its proposed second bailout.

      Altafaj said:

      We have gone beyond the deadline already.

      Altafaj added that EU finance ministers would meet as soon as Greece has said it will make its commitments.

      In other words – don't wait for us to hold our next meeting. We're waiting for you.

      11.48am: Frustrations at the missed-deadline-that-never-was over fresh Greek austerity measures are brilliantly articulated by Louise Cooper, of BGC Partners, who gives us an etymology lesson. "Deadline", she reminds us, was originally a Civil War term for a line that marked the boundary beyond which a prisoner could not go without being shot.

      Yet again a euro crisis deadline has been proved to be not as its definition would suggest - I think the Oxford English Dictionary needs to update its meaning of deadline to include a eurozone version – likely to be missed, more of an optimistic hoped-for time frame rather than an actual reflection of the days and weeks needed to get something achieved.

      We've been messed around a good deal on Greek deadlines in recent days (see below). Meanwhile, eurozone heavyweights are piling on the pressure. Eurogroup president Jean-Claude Juncker, of Luxembourg, said: "If we were to determine that everything has gone wrong with Greece, then there would be no new programme, then this would mean that in March they would have to declare bankruptcy."

      The latest hint as to when we might learn more came from one Greek MP, a member of the ruling Pasok party, who has told Bloomberg TV that agreement among coalition politicians must be reached by tomorrow afternoon. Should we hold our breath on that promise? Perhaps not.

      11.46am: Germany's December factory orders were up 1.7% on the previous month, well ahead of expectations and boosting the impression that the eurozone's largest economy continues to power ahead, boosted by demand from further afield.

      11.10am: A curious historical echo: Today is the anniversary of the 1832 crowning of Otto, King of Greece, an occasion that saw the birth of a (highly indebted) modern state – albeit under the protection of the UK, France and Russia. As FT Alphaville notes Otto was really quite Bavarian. In fact, he was the son of King Ludwig I. His rule saw massive tax hikes and led to widespread discontent – even an assassination attempt on his wife. Eventually, he was ousted in a coup and retreated to Bavaria in 1862. A lesson for our times?

      10.33am: Should Scotland vote for independence, it could emerge with something less than a triple A credit rating, according to a mischievous article in the FT this morning. Taking unofficial soundings from the big three credit rating agencies – Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch – the report suggests Scotland might scrape in with an investment-grade rating, but some notches short of the UK's triple A. SNP describes such reports as "inaccurate".

      9.31am: The pound has strengthened this morning against the euro as concerns about Greece continue to build. The euro was down about 0.4% against the pound at 82.87 pence. Sterling is now close to its highest level since September 2010 – despite the prospect of the Bank of England opting for another dose of quantitative easing shortly.

      9.29am: Hmmm. Greek government officials are now telling Reuters there is no deadline at noon today (10am GMT). They say the only commitment is to reach agreement before the next meeting of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers. A meeting had been in the diary for 4pm today – but appears to have been cancelled over the weekend. On Friday a spokesman for the German finance ministry told Reuters:

      A meeting of this kind only makes sense – if it is to be about Greece – if we have all the elements sorted... All of those elements have not been met, so it's speculative to talk about such a meeting.

      So the deadline for Greek political agreement is a meeting, invitations to which will only be sent out once Greek political agreement has been reached.

      9.10am: European prime minister resigns months ahead of elections and after weeks of nationwide protest against tough austerity measures... Not Greece's Lucas Papademos (yet). In fact it's Emil Boc of Romania.

      8.43am: Helena Smith, in Athens, confirms the prospect of April elections is looming large over intense negotiations among coalition parties about Greek austerity proposals.

      Their deliberations will be followed by a brief meeting with prime minister Lucas Papademos. He, in turn, will deliver Greece's position to the "troika" of visiting debt auditors from the EU, ECB and IMF. It's likely, however, that word will leak out before then. Even if further cost-cutting measures are accepted, says Helena, it is far from sure that recalcitrant MPs will also endorse them.

      Emerging from the talks last night, Giorgos Karatzaferis, the media-savvy leader of the populist Laos, one of the three parties backing Papademos' national unity government, railed: "I'm not going to contribute to the explosion of a revolution [by supporting] a wretchedness that will then spread across Europe."
      Antonis Samaras, who heads the main conservative New Democracy party, also emphasised that the boxing gloves were on. "They are asking for more recession than the country can take," he said in a statement, referring to creditors' demands that Greece accept further wage and pension cuts. "I am fighting against them. This is the first time there has been real negotiations."
      Papademos in a statement said progress of a kind had been made. The three party leaders had agreed to further spending cuts amounting to €1.5bn.
      "These leaders were not given a mandate to allow the country to go bankrupt," Babis Papadimitriou, a prominent commentator on economic affairs, told Skai news. "Bankruptcy will mean years of isolation. If they allow this to happen they will have betrayed Greeks."

      8.30am: The FT has a story this morning suggesting as many as half of the capital-boosting proposals put forward by 30 European banks may be rejected as not sufficiently credible. Remember these banks were forced to come up with plans to increase their capital cushions after the European Banking Authority in December found that together they needed to raise €115bn to meet their regulatory targets.

      The EBA board are due to discuss submitted plans at a meeting next week. Some experts have pointed a finger at Commerzbank as one bank likely to find filling its capital shortfall a big ask. Since then the German bank has generated €3bn of capital toward its €5.3bn stress test shortfall and local regulators have played down concerns.

      Spanish bank Santander was found to have the largest shortfall - of €15bn - but has insisted it has found ways of filling the gap. Only Italy's Unicredit opted for a rights issue to raise capital - and look how well that went.

      Update: The European Banking Authority says it will provide an update on bank recapitalisation plans after its board meeting on February 8-9, according to Reuters. Playing down concerns that a large number of proposals were likely to be rejected, the regulator said: "The overwhelming majority of measures outlined in the plans appear to be, in aggregate, in line with the spirit and the letter of the EBA's recommendation."

      8.16am: There's not much in the diary today (other than Greece). Here's the agenda:

      •10am deadline for Greek politicians to reach agreement on austerity measures
      •11am German factory orders for December (Consensus forecast: 1% rise)
      •2pm Klaas Knot, governing council member of the ECB speaking at an event in Amsterdam

      8.05am: As time ticks on there is increasing concern that a lack of agreement among Greek politicians will overshadow the day. The Asian markets were up overnight on the back of Friday's strong jobs figures from the US. (Japan's Nikkei average rose 1.1% to a three-month high of 8,925 points, the Hang Seng was up 0.51% at 20,862.) Back in Europe the mood is more sombre.

      Greek coalition parties are supposed to be working to a deadline of midday - 10am GMT. That might get pushed back, of course, but if it passes without agreement it will do nothing to calm the mood.

      Here is the view from analysts at Investec:

      Greek politicians face a general election soon after the second bailout has been agreed (or not as it may be). The prospect of an election campaign is certain to influence bailout negotiations. The extra austerity measures may well be counterproductive, but a messy default and uncertainty over Greece's position in the euro will not do much good either, so it is a bit of a lose-lose situation for Greek politicians. Public opinion seems to put greater trust in outsiders than in domestic politicians though, so putting up with EU/IMF conditions may still have the upper hand with the electorate, but remains to be seen if politicians can agree. With no agreement later today, expect markets to become increasingly concerned and a lack of flexibility from the EU may cause some contagion…

      7.45am: Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the eurozone financial crisis.

      Today is deadline day for Greece, which must tell the European Union whether it accepts the terms of its second bailout, worth €130bn. The heads of its three largest political parties spent the weekend locked in talks, but are still divided.

      One leader – Laos's Giorgos Karatzaferis - has already refused to endorse the painful package of spending cuts and tax rises. Can PM Lucas Papademos pull a deal out of the fire?

      Athens is also still struggling to reach a deal with its private creditors over its debt restructuring package – adding to fears that Greece might fall into bankruptcy.

      On the economic front, the latest German factory order data should be released this morning, showing how its manufacturers fared at the end of 2011.


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    • Daily Mail Science: World's first 3D printer-created jaw fitted to 83-year-old

      The titanium jaw was built by Belgian company LayerWise in collaboration with scientists from the University of Hasselt, based in the same country.
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